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El Niño ramping up, but here’s when it could end
El Niño is continuing to strengthen across the tropical Pacific, with ocean temperatures running well above average and the atmosphere increasingly responding to the warming waters. Forecast models indicate the event could become unusually strong later this year, potentially reaching peak intensity during the late fall or winter of 2026–27. A stronger El Niño can shift the jet stream and influence temperatures and precipitation patterns well beyond the Pacific, including across the southern United States.
The important question is how long the pattern will last. Current forecasts suggest El Niño should remain in place through the upcoming winter before gradually weakening, with conditions potentially transitioning toward neutral later in 2027. For Texas and the southern U.S., El Niño winters are often associated with a wetter-than-normal pattern, although the exact impacts depend on the strength and position of the jet stream. The developing event could therefore play a significant role in shaping the upcoming winter weather pattern, even as forecasters caution that El Niño's strength does not guarantee a specific outcome for every location.
