Lake Travis is sitting a few feet shy of full right now, but a new study commissioned by the Central Texas Water Coalition says the long-term picture deserves a closer look. Its finding: rain is falling on the Highland Lakes watershed at about the same rate it has for a century, yet a shrinking share of it actually reaches Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan.

The report notes that nine of the ten lowest-inflow years on record have come since 2006. If a drought as severe as the 1950s returned today, the study estimates the two lakes could supply 9% to 21% less water than LCRA's planning currently assumes, with combined storage dipping below the 600,000 acre-foot line where rationing can kick in.

The study doesn't pin the drop on one cause, pointing instead to warmer temperatures and evaporation, falling groundwater, land-use changes and tens of thousands of small upstream ponds. The coalition is asking LCRA and state regulators to factor in current watershed conditions before approving LCRA's 2032 Water Management Plan.

Source: Community Impact