Heaviest rain, biggest flood threat expected Thursday night in Central Texas
Posted: Thu, 1 Oct 2026 09:16 AM - 36 Readers
By: CBS Austin
A Flood Watch covers most of Central Texas through Friday night, and CBS Austin meteorologist Avery Tomasco said the biggest flash-flood risk is Thursday night into early Friday. Confidence is high that torrential rain will develop, but where the heaviest totals fall is still unclear. A weakening upper-level storm is strong enough to produce storms but not strong enough to steer them, so the hardest-hit areas may not be obvious until cells are already on radar. Storms were expected to move into the Hill Country overnight, with heavy rain possible along and east of I-35 on Thursday. The peak concern is Thursday evening, when slow or stalled storms could form in the eastern Hill Country or along the I-35 corridor, with rates topping 4 inches per hour.
All of Central Texas is under a Level 3 of 4 flash-flood risk through early Friday. Forecast totals are 1 to 3 inches in eastern counties, 2 to 4 inches along I-35, and 3 to 5 inches in the Hill Country, with isolated amounts of 8 inches or more possible along or west of I-35. A long drought will not prevent flooding: dry soil can shed water into creeks and roads quickly. A cold front Friday morning should bring lighter rain that could still disrupt ACL Weekend One at Zilker Park. Saturday has a 50% chance of showers, and Sunday looks nicest, with highs in the 80s. Tomasco also urged Highland Lakes residents to prepare, since Lake Buchanan is 96% full and Lake Travis is 90% full, and watershed runoff could lead to floodgate operations a day or two later.
