Posted: Fri, 24 Feb 2012 09:12 AM - 12,323 Readers
By: Farzad Mashhood
For the first time in nearly a year, parts of Central Texas are now considered to be in "moderate drought," improved from the highest level of "exceptional drought" of just a few months ago.
The easing of drought conditions comes after several soaking rains. But a wide swath of the Hill Country has seen less rain and is still among the state's most parched areas.
Central Texas plants have sprung to life, thanks also to a warmer than usual winter, and botanists on Thursday predicted a good wildflower show this spring.
"It's been a wonderful La Niña. Better than we could have hoped for," state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said, referring to the weather pattern that typically brings dry winters to Texas.
Still, area lakes, which provide most of Central Texas with drinking water, remain far below normal levels.
The latest drought monitor report, released Thursday by the National Drought Mitigation Center and drawn from data recorded on Tuesday morning, shows that about 14 percent of the state — and no areas in Central Texas — remains in exceptional drought.
Almost 88 percent of the state was in exceptional drought as recently as early October.
Nielsen-Gammon and meteorologists predicted the La Niña weather conditions to continue into this spring and have been pleasantly surprised with more than double normal rainfall in Austin since Dec. 1.
Recent National Weather Service models show La Niña ending by the summer.
"All these cool, early spring wildflowers and grasses have all just switched on," said Mark Simmons, an ecologist with the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center. "The downside is that we have a lot of massively invasive species in Texas, and they are having a bumper year. ... They can outcompete a lot of our native wildflowers, including bluebonnets."
Certain cool-season invasive plants such as bastard cabbage, burr clover and perennial rye, Simmons said, will outcompete native plants because they're more adapted to warmer, wetter winters like this one. This year's crop will spread plenty of seeds that will lead to more invasives next year as well, Simmons said.
Statewide, agriculture is making a comeback, most notably in the northern part of the state where more than a dozen counties are entirely out of dry conditions.
"The really crucial thing as far as the livestock sector is, where do I get hay, and how much do I pay for hay?" said Travis Miller, a Texas A&M University professor and soil and crop science specialist.
Hay purchases have been down this winter as winter cool season grasses have come in well, Miller said.
In Central Texas, the fortunes of the agricultural sector have been roughly split across Interstate 35 as more rain has been falling to the east of the interstate this winter, said Dustin Coufal, a Williamson County AgriLife Extension agent. But "most of the farmers and ranchers are using a little caution in their management practices" because forecasts still call for a dry spring and summer, he said.
Lake levels have been steadily rising this winter. Lake Travis saw its biggest rise — 3 feet in five days — since remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine brought about a foot of rain to parts of Central Texas in September 2010.
The rising waters have been even longer coming for Lake Buchanan, which rose 2.4 feet after last week's rains. Buchanan rose only 2 feet after Hermine and about 3 feet in a series of storms in March 2010.
By Thursday, the lakes held a combined total of 833,000 acre-feet of water, or 41 percent of capacity.
The lakes typically hold about twice that, 1.65 million acre-feet, in February, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority.
Lake Georgetown and Stillhouse Hollow Lake, where Round Rock, Georgetown and other parts of Williamson County get their water, were holding a combined total of 168,361 acre-feet of water on Thursday, 64 percent of capacity; the lakes are normally about 92 percent full in February, according to the Brazos River Authority.
"Looking at soil moisture, how much rain we've gotten and fire danger, we've seen significant improvement," said Bob Rose, the LCRA's chief meteorologist. "But this has been such an intense drought over a year and a half period of time that it's really going to take more than this amount of rain to get us out."
Central Texas needs about 10 to 13 inches of rain in the next three months and at least 19 inches of rain in the next six months to be out of drought, Rose said.
The latest National Weather Service climate model for the next month predicts equal chances of normal, above normal and below normal rainfall for Central Texas, meaning there's no telling whether or not the wet winter will continue.
However, the three-month outlook shows a slightly better chance of below normal rainfall.
