Posted: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 02:49 PM - 7,470 Readers
By: Marty Toohey
The scorching Central Texas heat wave is probably over, and Austin residents can look forward to a soggy fall and winter, forecasters say.
"I think our triple-digit days are now behind us," KVUE chief meteorologist Mark Murray said. If he and other forecasters are right, this summer would end with Austin one 100-degree day short of the modern record, set in 1925.
photo by Jay JannerBut Murray and his colleagues were quick to note that Central Texas' record-setting drought is a long way from being broken, and even a very wet winter may not do the trick. Though it has risen a foot since last week, Lake Travis is still only 40 percent full and must go up significantly before Austin relaxes its lawn-watering restrictions.
Still, the rain that began falling around Labor Day "was a great start ... and I see the possibility for substantial drought relief over the next few months," Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose said.
His opinion is shared by other local forecasters, who expect a relatively wet end to the year because of a weather pattern called El Niño. Warmer-than-usual water is now flowing through the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, releasing heat that changes weather patterns around the world, Murray said.
National Weather Service forecaster Cristy Mitchell said a large storm pattern has basically taken up residence off the Baja Coast and is expected to remain there until spring, pulling moisture from the Pacific and sending it over northern Mexico and the American Southwest.
"What this means in Texas is more storms steered our way," Murray said.
But the drought, which stretches back to September 2007, has left Central Texas needing 15 to 20 inches of rain to return to pre-drought conditions, Rose said.
The region has gone from soaked to parched during the past two years. This spring Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Fayette counties were declared disaster areas because of the drought. The designation made farmers and ranchers eligible for low-interest loans from the state, said Pete Baldwin, Travis County's emergency management coordinator. Bastrop in particular lost significant amounts of timber and row crops, Baldwin said.
On Monday, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, said Central Texas farmers are now eligible for additional drought relief as part of the federal farm bill passed last year.
"Texas farmers and ranchers have finally seen a few drops of rain," Doggett said in a statement. "Now, they'll finally see a few drops of federal aid."
But the recent rain didn't add a lot to Austin's waterways. Lake Travis is now about 631 feet above mean sea level, 50 feet below the full mark. The rains added only about a foot to the lake level because most of the water soaked into the dusty ground, Rose said.
Lake Travis provides most of Austin's drinking water. The city will probably keep limiting homeowners and most businesses to one-day-a-week lawn watering, said Daryl Slusher, assistant director for environmental affairs and conservation at the Austin Water Utility.
Barton Springs and other parts of the Edwards Aquifer began flowing stronger after the rain but are already weakening, said Brian Hunt, a hydrogeologist with the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District. The creeks that feed the aquifer didn't capture much of the rain, he said.
"A good indication is to look at Onion Creek in Wimberley," Hunt said. "It's still bone dry."
"The bottom line is the drought is a long ways from over," Murray said. "To make a dent in it, we need what happened last week to happen again several times."
The rainfall, and its effects, varied widely across Central Texas. Camp Mabry has gotten just under 4 inches of rain this month, well ahead of the typical pace this time of year, and Austin-Bergstrom International Airport has gotten 4.27 inches.
But in Jarrell in northern Williamson County, 13 inches fell in about eight hours Friday, shutting down a five-mile stretch of Interstate 35 for two hours.
In nearby Salado in southern Bell County, 12 people were evacuated Friday from several homes, and seven vehicles were washed away by floodwater. Only a couple of inches of rain fell on the town, but water rushing from upstream flooded Salado Creek, submerging roads and peeling 8 inches of asphalt from the bridge running through downtown, Mayor Merle Stalcup said.
On Monday, the bridge reopened after Texas Department of Transportation crews resurfaced it and declared it structurally sound. Stalcup said Monday that Salado sustained about $600,000 worth of damage. But the town was mostly unscathed and was planning to move forward with events such as the Salado Chocolate & Art Festival in two weeks.
"With the exception of the cleanup," Stalcup said, "we're right back to normal."
